Monday's Window Closed, and It Closed Fast

We had rates under 6.5% at the start of the week. They're back to 6.625% this morning. If you have a client who was waiting for a little more, this is the conversation.

On Monday, a client could lock under 6.5%. This morning they can't. That window was open for about three days, and almost nobody who was waiting for a better number got through it.

Here's what closed it. Iran hit three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The US retaliated. Iran hit US bases in the Gulf. Trump declared the ceasefire over. The naval blockade is back on, and the US revoked Iran's ability to sell oil on the world market — which means global supply just tightened again, on top of a shipping lane nobody wants to sail through.

Oil is up more than 5%. The 10-year is at 4.58%. Rates are back to 6.625%.

Rate windows don't announce themselves. They open, and then a tanker gets hit six thousand miles away and they're gone.

If you're an agent, that's the whole client conversation this week, and you don't need the geopolitics to have it. The honest version is: the number your buyer turned down on Monday is better than the number available today, and the reason has nothing to do with them or with Nashville.

Fed minutes drop this afternoon and could add fuel. Expect volatility the rest of the week, driven almost entirely by things happening in the Gulf.