Peace Brought Rates Down. The War Is Taking It Back.

Two things are moving mortgage rates this week — a collapsed ceasefire and tomorrow morning's CPI print. Here's what I'm actually watching.

Two things are driving rates this week, and only one of them is an economic report.

Over the weekend, the US bombed hundreds of Iranian targets. Iran answered by hitting US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman. Whatever the ceasefire was, it's effectively over now.

The part that reaches your mortgage runs through a shipping lane. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has cratered — half as many crossings last week as the week before — and oil is up 4% today on the news. That's the transmission line. Not the headlines, the barrels.

Last month, peace in the Middle East relieved mortgage rates. This is doing the opposite.

Tomorrow's CPI is the single biggest catalyst on the calendar. A hot print pushes rates higher. A cool one buys temporary relief — and I mean temporary, because none of it resolves what's happening in the Gulf.

Where that leaves you: 30-year rates are pushing up to 6.625%, and a hot number tomorrow could put us closer to 6.75%. That's the honest range.